Race Day at Sepang: Heat, Tyre Wear and a Strategy Puzzle for Verstappen
Sepang's first F1 race since 2017 starts at 3pm. Here is what the heat, high tyre wear and limited hard-tyre sets could mean for this afternoon.
Sepang hosts its first Formula 1 race in nine years this afternoon. Even with Max Verstappen on pole, the result could come down to tyres and the weather.
The Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix starts at 3pm Malaysia time and runs 56 laps of the 5.543km circuit, just over 310km in total. Here is what to watch for.
The weather
Earlier in the week, forecasts warned of afternoon storms. GPblog reported a 75% chance of rain on 29 September. The latest outlook is more settled. Mercedes' weather briefing describes Sunday as "a slightly cooler day" with rain "less likely" than on Friday and Saturday, and an air temperature of about 31°C. Total Motorsport puts the chance of rain at around 30% and says track temperatures could reach about 46°C if it stays dry.
The heat has been the main story all weekend. The FIA declared a heat hazard for the event, and track temperatures were in the mid-50s during qualifying. Hamilton said the heat made the weekend "a massive challenge for the tyres, for the car, for the mechanics in the garage." GPblog also pointed out a 2026-specific problem: a hot battery means less electrical deployment, which leaves less energy available on Sepang's two long straights.
Two stops, maybe three
Pirelli expects a two-stop race. "On paper, the Medium-Hard-Hard and Soft-Hard-Hard combinations appear to be among the most competitive," Pirelli's Dario Marrafuschi said, as reported by Grande Premio. Pirelli does not think a one-stop will be competitive on Sepang's untouched 2017 asphalt.
There is a twist. According to Grande Premio, Verstappen and Charles Leclerc have only one new set of hard tyres left, while most drivers have two. That could push them towards using more softs or mediums, or even a three-stop race. Friday's long runs also showed that the soft was sometimes more consistent than the medium, because its extra grip meant less sliding and less heat.
George Russell thinks that will open things up. "All three tyre compounds look viable, so I think there will be some opportunities," he said.
The title picture
Kimi Antonelli leads team-mate Russell by 66 points and starts third, four places ahead of him. For Antonelli, a solid haul of points matters more than a win today: finishing ahead of Russell would stretch his lead as the season heads towards its finish. Russell needs to pass the McLarens and his team-mate, and he will be looking to the long stints to do it. Mercedes have struggled for pace all weekend, so both drivers may have to play it safe.
Watch the start
Verstappen and Hamilton share the front row for the first time since Hungary 2023. The run from the grid to Turn 1 is long, and Sepang's slow first two corners have caught drivers out in the past. Isack Hadjar starts eighth after his engine penalty. He was third fastest in qualifying, so expect him to move forward early.
Key takeaways
- Race starts at 3pm MYT over 56 laps. The latest forecast is about 31°C with a lower chance of rain.
- Pirelli expects two stops, with Medium-Hard-Hard or Soft-Hard-Hard the favoured plans.
- Verstappen and Leclerc have only one new hard set each, which could change their strategies.
- Antonelli starts third with a 66-point lead. Russell starts seventh.
FAQ
How many laps is the race at Sepang? 56 laps of the 5.543km circuit, just over 310km.
Will it rain at Sepang today? The latest forecasts put the chance at around 30%, lower than earlier in the week. Malaysian afternoon storms can still develop quickly.
What are the main strategy options? Pirelli favours a two-stop, either Medium-Hard-Hard or Soft-Hard-Hard. A three-stop is possible for drivers short of hard tyres.
Sources: Total Motorsport, Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team, GPblog, Grande Premio, Formula1.com, Al Jazeera, Sky Sports