Antonelli can clinch 2026 F1 title in Austin: the three results the Mercedes driver needs

Kimi Antonelli has his first chance to become Formula 1 world champion at the United States Grand Prix this weekend. The Mercedes driver goes to the Circuit of The Americas with 340 points, 102 ahead of team-mate George Russell, and only six grands prix left. If he wins on Sunday in Austin and his two closest rivals have bad afternoons, the title is his with five rounds still to run. In Malaysia, that race starts at 4am on Monday 26 October.

The standings after Singapore

Max Verstappen won in Singapore on 11 October, but Antonelli's third place there made his lead even bigger. Russell started from the back of the grid after engine penalties and could only finish ninth. Here is the top six with six rounds to go:

• Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) – 340
• George Russell (Mercedes) – 238
• Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) – 229
• Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 221
• Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 215
• Lando Norris (McLaren) – 201

The last sprint of the year was held in Singapore, so the six races left are all standard grands prix: Austin, Mexico City, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. A race win is worth 25 points and there is no longer a bonus point for fastest lap. That means 150 points are still available, and 125 will remain after Austin.

What Antonelli needs on Sunday

To be champion after Austin, Antonelli needs a lead that no one can overturn in the last five races. On points alone that is 125, and he wins any tie because he has eight victories this season. Sky Sports and Formula1.com both arrived at the same three conditions:

• Antonelli must win. If he finishes second, he cannot clinch, whatever the others do.
• Russell must finish ninth or lower. With a win, Antonelli's lead over Russell would be at least 102 + 25 – 2 = 125 points, and Russell would also have fewer wins than him.
• Hamilton must finish fifth or lower. The Ferrari driver is 111 points behind. If he finishes fifth (10 points), the gap becomes 126. If he finishes fourth (12 points), it stays at 124 and the fight continues.

Verstappen does not affect the result in Austin. If Antonelli wins, the Red Bull driver can finish no better than second and would still be more than 125 points back. Leclerc and Norris are in the same position.

Who is still in the fight

On paper, five drivers can still catch the leader. Norris, 139 points behind, is closest to being knocked out. He has to outscore Antonelli by about 14 points in Austin to stay mathematically alive. Oscar Piastri, on 138 points, can no longer win the title.

The constructors' title cannot be decided in Austin. Mercedes have 578 points to Ferrari's 444, a gap of 134. One team can score at most 43 points in a race (25 for first plus 18 for second). The lead would have to be more than 215 points after Sunday to be safe, and it cannot grow that much in one weekend.

A record within reach

Antonelli is 20. If he wins the title on 25 October he would be 20 years and 61 days old. That would beat Sebastian Vettel's record as the youngest champion by more than three years: Vettel was 23 when he won with Red Bull in 2010. When he was told in Singapore that the title could come in Austin, Antonelli replied: "Can I? Really?"

For Malaysian fans the team has a local link, because Mercedes race as Mercedes-AMG Petronas.

Key takeaways

• Antonelli (340) leads Russell (238) by 102 points, with six grands prix and 150 points left.
• He clinches in Austin only if he wins, Russell finishes ninth or lower and Hamilton finishes fifth or lower.
• Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris cannot stop him in Austin if he wins.
• The constructors' title cannot be settled at this race.

FAQ

Can Antonelli win the title if he finishes second in Austin? No. Without a win, his lead over Russell cannot reach 125 points this weekend, so the decision would move to Mexico City at the earliest.

What time is the United States Grand Prix in Malaysia? The race starts at 3pm local time in Austin on Sunday 25 October. That is 4am on Monday 26 October in Malaysia.

How many points are left in the 2026 season? There are six grands prix and no more sprints, so 150 points remain before Austin and 125 after it.

Sources: Sky Sports, Formula1.com, RacingNews365, Crash.net, The Star, Reuters